The Value of Financial System Reform in China and I


'The Value of Financial System Reform in China and I'
McKinsey Global InstituteThe Value of Financial System Reform in China and IndiaDiana Farrell, DirectorMcKinsey Global InstituteJanuary, 2007AGENDA ? China’s Financial System ? India’s Financial System 1CHINA FINDINGS ? China has made steady advances in modernizing its financial system and in mobilizing savings, reflected in the doubling of China’s stock of financial assets relative to GDP over the past ten years. China’s banking sector plays an unusually large role in its financial system. ? Capital allocation in the system is poor: wholly and partially state-owned companies continue to absorb most of the funding from the financial system, while private enterprise, the engine of China’s growth, receives a disproportionately small share. As a result, China’s investment efficiency is declining. ? The dominant bank sector, though improving, remains highly inefficient and potentially vulnerable. ? Reforms that enable a larger share of funding to go to the most productive companies and improved the operating efficiency of financial system components would raise GDP by $321 billion annually, or 17 percent. ? China’s financial system’s remaining problems are intricately linked across its component markets, and will therefore require an integrated approach to reform. 2CHINA’S FINANCIAL SYSTEM DEPTH IS HIGH GIVEN ITS Position in 2004GDP PER CAPITA 1994-2004 evolution for select countries Stock of bank deposits, bonds and equity, 2004 Percent of GDP Mature Japan Malaysia United States United Kingdom Singapore South Africa Australia Sweden Emerging Canada China Chile South Taiwan Nascent Thailand Korea Finland India Saudi Arabia Brazil Norway Egypt New Zealand Turkey Hungary Czech Republic Philippines Mexico Indonesia Russian Federation Tunisia Vietnam United Arab Emirates Ukraine GDP per capita (at purchasing power parity), 2004 US $, logarithmic scale Note: China’s depth would be at 220% of GDP in 2004 according to recent GDP restatement. It is unclear how new GDP calculation methodology would affect China’s 1994 GDP.Source: WEFA; BIS; FIBV; WDI; IMF; GFS; McKinsey Global Institute analysis. 3CHINA’S FINANCIAL SYSTEM IS DOMINATED BY THE Equity Corporate debtBANKING SECTOR Government debt2004 financial stock components Bank depositsPercent, US $ billion 100% = 4,291 247 350 1,105 130
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本文标题:The Value of Financial System Reform in China and I
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